Cumberland Council is responsible for ensuring: 

• sufficient high-quality early education and childcare provision is available, which offers the early years’ free entitlement
• sufficient high-quality, maintained school provision is available to meet the needs of all Cumberland children and young people aged 5 to 16
• sufficient high-quality, maintained school or college provision is available to meet the needs of all Cumberland young people aged 16 to 18
• priority is given to appropriately meeting the needs of all children and young people with special educational needs, learning difficulties and/or disabilities
• priority is given to cared-for children
• all maintained nurseries and schools can function as high-quality, viable and financially efficient institutions
   

Local authorities have a statutory duty to ensure that sufficient places are available within their area for every child of school age whose parents wish them to have one, to promote diversity, parental choice, high educational standards, to ensure fair access to educational opportunity, and to help fulfil every child's educational potential.  Cumberland Council seeks to fulfil this duty in partnership with Schools, Governing Bodies, Dioceses, Academy Trusts, head teachers, local communities, and other key stakeholders. 

Via the annual School Capacity (SCAP) submission to the DfE, the Council is also expected to explain its plans for addressing any high levels of surplus places in the area.  

Planning future education provision and predicting future demand for school spaces is a complex process. To do so, the local authority uses a range of information including birth rates, local demographic data, migration data, information regarding planned housing developments and historic patterns of admissions to schools.  By analysing this data, we can determine and review trends in pupil numbers, allowing us to effectively forecast future demand for provision. 

Planning for school places is, however, based on probabilities, not certainties; our projections are derived from reliable data and sound calculations, but they cannot predict every possible outcome.  As such, whilst they come with a proven historical accuracy, they are not a guarantee.  The projections contained within this plan give an indication of what is likely to happen based on existing data and known trends.

Since 2011, new providers of school places have been able to establish state-funded ‘free schools’ outside of the local authority school planning process and now all new schools are deemed to be free schools.  There are also a growing number of schools that have converted to become academies, which are also independent of the Council.  Whilst the Council is responsible for ensuring there are sufficient school places available to meet the needs of Cumberland children and young people, it does not have direct control over a large number of schools in the area – the majority of secondary schools in Cumberland, for example, are academies.   

This School Organisation Plan shows local communities, and those interested in their development, how we expect demand for school places to change over the next few years, and how we think this will impact on individual schools and ‘planning areas’. It brings together information from a range of sources and sets out the issues the Council will face in meeting its statutory duties for providing nursery and school places up to January 2028/2029 for primary and 2030/2031 for secondary.  

The School Organisation Plan includes present and predicted future pupil numbers on roll, together with information about birth rates, school capacity and new housing. The Plan sets out proposed changes in the number of school places available over the next year and it identifies where other changes may be necessary in the future. The Plan also sets out our policies on school organisation and the statutory framework for making changes such as opening, closing, enlarging, or reducing the capacity at schools.  

For school aged children (aged 4 to 16), the Council works with schools and governing bodies to address school place supply or demand issues in the shorter and longer term. The information below explains how we plan places for school aged children.  

The Council uses past and present pupil numbers in all schools across the Cumberland area. Pupil numbers are usually reported to the DfE in October, January and May as part of the School Census return – we use January numbers for our projections. This information is used together with health data and approved housing developments to assess the extent to which a surplus or shortfall of places is likely to exist in the future. 

The purpose of forecasting pupil numbers is to satisfy the Council’s statutory requirement to meet current and future demand for places.  Equally, though, it is about delivering a school system which is best placed to support our communities with high-quality education provision.  It is not aimed at simply maintaining the status quo, but at supporting the identification of options where change could enhance and improve provision. 

The statutory duty to ensure sufficient school places exist in Cumberland is unlikely not to be met as currently Cumberland has more school places overall than it has children and young people.  This, however, does not necessarily mean that the school places are in the locations required to meet demand, as such pupil place planning is essential in ensuring that demand can be met now and in the future. 

Cumberland covers a large, diverse geographical area.  It includes the city of Carlisle, a number of large towns, and some of the most sparsely populated areas of the country.  To carry-out pupil forecasts effectively, the area is split into smaller areas we refer to as planning areas.  There are 17 primary school planning areas and three secondary school planning areas. There are fewer secondary schools than primary schools and they usually admit larger numbers and children and young people from a wider area than primary schools, hence the difference in number and size of these areas.  

We agree our planning areas each year with Department for Education (DfE) as part of the statutory School Capacity Return.  The planning area are formed following DfE guidance (Local Authority Pupil Planning Areas (publishing.service.gov.uk)).  As well as helping us to assess demand for school places, planning areas also underpin the DfE’s calculation of ‘Basic Need’ capital funding; this is allocated to local authorities when projected numbers in a planning area exceed the available capacity.  Historically, Cumberland Council and its predecessor Cumbria County Council, have received comparatively small Basic Need allocations.  This is largely because most of our planning areas have schools with surplus places. 

Primary school planning areas are typically made up of between two and ten schools. They vary in size depending on the rural or urban nature of the area with rural areas generally having larger geographical planning areas. The size and shape of the planning areas are also dependent on where children live and where they are likely to attend schools. 

Secondary school planning areas are substantial in size.  They have been formed based on pupil movements between catchment areas, which has traditionally been considerable.  In Carlisle, for example, many parents typically seek places for their children at William Howard School in Brampton, or Caldew School in Dalston; those two schools, therefore, form part of the wider Carlisle Secondary planning area.  In the West, pupils from the catchment of West Lakes Academy travel south to Millom, and north to Whitehaven Academy or St Benedict’s, so these schools are all part of a single secondary planning area.  

Parents and carers are under no obligation to select their closest school and can apply for schools that may be a considerable distance from home.  Parents may apply, for example, for a faith school in another area, or a school close to their place of work. Parents may also choose independent schooling for their child. As a result, there is not necessarily a direct link between the number of children living in a particular catchment or planning area and the number of school places located there.  

Past and present data on the number and addresses of pupils in schools is used to identify historic and current trends in patterns of movement and where children attend school. This analysis is applied to further data to forecast expected future patterns of demand.  

Much attention within this document is focused on the “starter” years in schools – Reception for primary schools and Year 7 for secondary schools. These are the most significant year groups when there is a changing school population, either increasing or decreasing. As the most recent admissions to schools, they are the year groups that are likely to best reflect current parental attitudes to schools.  Forecasts indicate how many children are expected to require a school place in each primary or secondary school planning area, and this is evaluated against the number of available places in the planning areas.  Action is then taken if the demand significantly outstrips the supply or vice versa.  

Health Authority registrations underpin all primary school forecasts. This data is provided to the Council annually by the DfE, and provides full details of children aged 0-18 living in the area and registered with the NHS. Only those registered at the time can be included and therefore any movement or new children moving into Cumberland may not be included; year-to-year inward and outward movement to and from Cumberland is generally relatively insignificant in projecting future demand in any case.  

By comparing one year’s data to the next, any increases or decreases in the size of age groups over time can be identified, and this provides information on the number of children that may require school places in the future. 
 
Although there are different ways by which the future need for school places can be estimated, the forecast methodology used identifies:   

• the pattern of how numbers of children aged under 5, registered with the NHS in a primary school planning area, turn into numbers of reception pupils in that area
• the pattern of pupils attending each primary school transferring to individual secondary schools.  

There are four key reasons for using this methodology: 

• accurate data in the relevant areas from the NHS
• accurate data for those attending primary and secondary schools in each of the areas from national census data submitted by each school
• the areas used are large enough not to be too influenced by short-term or very local peaks and troughs, but small enough not to rely on wholly inaccessible provision to meet local needs
• able to make year on year comparisons to avoid discrepancies and make allowances or find reasons for sudden changes by local and central knowledge of each school

As well as Health data there are several different factors that will influence the number of children in an area that turn into the numbers of pupils. The level of new housing, inward and outward migration, popularity, Ofsted reports, movement between Councils mainly on the borders and the take up of places at independent schools are all examples. Where possible these factors are accounted for in the methodology. 

A review of the primary planning areas is undertaken each year to determine whether the mix of schools remains appropriate. If deemed necessary, proposals can be submitted to the DfE to make the following changes:   

• the number of planning areas
• the names of planning areas
• the schools making up some of the planning areas
• the geographical area covered by some of the planning areas

If, after review, it is deemed necessary to make changes to the primary planning areas and such changes are approved by the DfE, the new planning areas will be used for primary school forecasts from 2026 onwards.  

Although planning areas were initially established to best fit where children live and the area that they are likely to attend school through historical and demographic trends, this is not always the case. Often parental preferences are made for what is perceived as ‘better’ or more popular schools, ease of access, or where childcare arrangements fit in with their family circumstances. To reflect this, the forecasting process factors in application data and movement between planning areas; whilst we try to maintain ‘self-contained’ planning areas, it is inevitable that a number of children will cross these artificial boundaries.   

School census data is used to identify patterns of how many children from each planning area attend each school. By applying this information to birth and health data, we can provisionally forecast the number of reception children starting at each primary school.  Where required, adjustments are made where recent changes in parental preferences are not reflected in previous years’ trends.  

The census data is used to calculate a ‘retention rate’ of pupil numbers remaining in each school in each year group. This is then applied to the most recent census data to forecast ‘in-year’ numbers expected at each school.  In Cumberland, there has historically been very little year-on-year change in cohort numbers once they are established in Reception.  

Estimates of the likely number of additional pupils in approved new housing are then added to these numbers over a four-year period, beginning in the following academic year, to allow time for construction to begin on the development and homes to become occupied.

In general, families are more willing for children to travel further for secondary education than for primary education.  In practice, given the rural nature of much of Cumberland, this is a necessity in any case for many families.   

Analysis of historic trends of children transferring from primary to secondary school is key to the forecasting of future Year 7 cohorts.   

Information on the numbers of children from each primary school transferring to each secondary school is monitored and maintained. This includes children from private, independent schools and from children living across the borders in other Local Authorities. By applying this information to the primary school forecast figures, we can provisionally forecast the number of year 7 children starting at each secondary school. Where required, adjustments are made where recent changes in parental preferences are not reflected in previous years’ trends.   

Again, the census data is used to calculate a ‘retention rate’ of pupil numbers remaining in each school in each year group, including the staying on rate in schools with a sixth form.  This is then applied to the most recent census data to forecast ‘in-year’ numbers expected at each school.   

Estimates of the likely number of additional pupils in approved new housing are then added to these numbers over time, to allow for the construction to begin on the development and homes to become occupied.  

Applications to set up a free school are made to the Department for Education (DfE). A free school can be set up by groups such as: academies; businesses; charities; community or faith groups; independent schools (private, fee-paying schools); parents; schools maintained by local authorities; teachers and universities.   

All applications to set up a free school must be approved by the Secretary of State for Education.  

The Council is consulted on all free school applications and assesses the potential effects of new free schools on existing schools. Any new school will have an impact on which children are able to gain a place in surrounding schools. Free schools are included in planning areas, however the methodology for forecasting the number of pupils for each school changes as additional schools are added and, in some cases, this results in established schools taking children from a wider or different area.   

The current pupil numbers and school place numbers are provided by planning area within Cumberland. Each section provides information relevant to the individual planning area and includes projections illustrating how pupil numbers are expected to change, as well as what general changes in school organisation and Published Admission Numbers (PAN) are needed to meet the changing pupil population.   

This information will be of interest to school governors, head teachers and parents/pupils. The analysis is presented in 17 planning area sections and a District overview for primary schools and three planning area sections and a District overview for secondary schools.  

When looking at the projections in each of the planning area sections it is important to note that whilst the Council will seek to meet parental preferences, projections are primarily concerned with the number of available school places in the area.  It may be the case that there are some schools in an area that are consistently oversubscribed due to parental preferences.  In school place planning terms, and for the calculation of Basic Need capital funding, oversubscription in one or more schools in any planning area is not equivalent to a shortage of places.  The DfE considers all the available capacity in any planning area to determine whether a shortage of places exists.  The pattern of parental preferences gives an indication as to where parents would prefer their children to go to school, but is not an indicator of a shortage of school places.   

The Council’s aim is to predict and respond to any surplus or shortfall of places in reception and year 7 (and ultimately, beyond), based on the number of children due to start school and the ongoing impact of any growth or reduction in pupil numbers. The actual need for places may be distributed evenly across all areas, or may be concentrated.  To enable the Council to meet the demand for places of families moving into an area, and to account for mobility related to parental preference, the aim is to retain spare capacity of around 5% to ensure that children are placed into schools as soon as possible.  This would ideally be the case in each primary and secondary school planning area.  This is not to say that when spare capacity falls below 5%, the Council will seek to provide additional places.  A long-term view must be taken, and the availability of capital funding will ultimately determine what we can do.

The forecasts submitted to the DfE as part of the annual School Capacity (SCAP) return for each primary and secondary school planning area are shown at the end of the main document.  The DfE publishes a Local Authority school places scorecard on an annual basis (with the exception of 2021 as the DfE cancelled 2020 statutory returns due to Covid).  Up to 2022, this detailed the accuracy of forecasting on a one-year and three-year basis. 

From 2023, this has changed to report the accuracy of forecasting on a one-year and two-year basis. Preference data and the quality of new places is also shown nationally and for individual local authorities.  From 2022 the national cost of new places has been reported.  As Cumberland was formed as a new Council in April 2023, no scorecard data is yet available, but the link above will, in future, show how well our projections compare with those of other local authorities.