Results of the Census
Overall, Cumberland stands out for its shrinking young and working age population compared to an overall increase in England and Wales. In the figure below, this is a trend that is pan-Cumbria.
Specifically for Cumberland the population decline for people aged under 65 is greatest in the south Cumberland area and along the west coast and less so in Carlisle.
In terms of the ageing population, the proportion of Cumberland’s population aged 65 and over is currently lower than the national average (except in Carlisle where it is similar). However, this needs to be considered in relation to lower mortality rates, poverty and people ageing with health conditions and disabilities along the west coast. Longer term forecasts show a significant rise in the proportion of people aged 65 and over.
ONS Report Living longer: how our population is changing and why it matters
This report provides an outline of future trends linked to an ageing population. These include:
- a rise in the population aged 65+ from 18% (2021) to 25% (2066)
- by 2039 Cumberland’s population aged 65+ will be between 25% and 42%
Work
Further increases in the proportion of people reliant on a state pension and people expected to work for longer has resulted in the employment rate of adults aged 65+ from 5% to just over 10% between 1998 and 2018.
Travel
2014 mid-year estimates from the Department of Transport demonstrate that a disproportionate number of older people face a longer travel time to key services in Cumberland than in most local authorities in England.
Implications for Public Services
Rise in demand for adult social care, public health and NHS care and refocus on housing models that can keep people at home independently and infrastructure that supports an ageing population (including public spaces, transportation and climate adaptations that prevent excess winter and summer deaths).
Changes to employment that extend trends towards longer more flexible packages of employment and pensions.
Greater support for carers and people in employment who are aged 50+ with additional caring responsibilities.
By 2039 Cumberland’s population aged 65 and over will be between 25% and 42%.