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SEND Sufficiency Plan 2024 Cumberland overview

Current distribution of Cumberland specialist places

Refer to page 5 on the document for a map of the specialist provisions providing specialist places across Cumberland

Number of specialist places and type of provision

  • special school all through: 72%
  • RP primary: 13%
  • RP secondary: 9%
  • other provision: 6%

'Other provision' refers to 40 specialist places that are delivered for children and young people with SEMH needs in both West Cumbria Learning Centre and Gilford Centre PRU. These places are for children and young people aged between 7 to 11 years.

The local authority has a statutory duty to constantly review the specialist provision available for children and young people with Special Educational Needs and Disabilities (SEND), whilst also ensuring there are sufficient specialist places available to meet the needs of the growing SEND population.

Cumberland has experienced a significant increase in demand for Special Educational Needs and Disabilities (SEND) provision over the past decade. It is projected that demand will continue to grow across all sectors, despite the decrease that we have seen in the birth rate locally, regionally, and nationally, the number of children and young people with an EHCP continues to rise.

The total number of Education, Health and Care Plans (EHCPS) for 0 to 25 year olds across Cumberland were recorded as 2656 in January 2024 (SEN2 Return).

The number of requests received for Education, Health and Care Assessments (EHCA) was 452 in 2022 rising to 570 in 2023, a significant increase of 26%.

Education, Health and Care assessment requests

In 2022, 452 requests were received and 374 agreed to assess.

in 20223, 570 requests were received and 428 agreed to assess.

EHCP population by age group January 2024

  • under 5: 189
  • age 5 to 10: 982
  • age 11 to 15: 956
  • age 16 to 19: 457
  • age 20 to 25: 72

Of the 2656 children and young people with an EHCP, 73% are of statutory school age compared with 69.1% nationally.

Percentage of children and young people with an EHCP by gender

In Cumberland, 71.70% of them are male and 28.30% of them are female.

In England, 71.30% of them are male and 28.70% of them are female.

Percentage of EHCP population by age group

Percentage of children and young people with EHCP in Cumberland is:

  • under 5: 7.10%
  • age 5 to 10: 37%
  • age 11 to 15: 36%
  • age 16 to 19: 17.20%
  • age 20 to 25: 2.70%

Percentage of children and young people with EHCP Nationally is:

  • under 5: 4.60%
  • age 5 to 10: 32.7%
  • age 11 to 15: 36.40%
  • age 16 to 19: 20.10%
  • age 20 to 25: 6.20%

Where are our children and young people (EHCP - 0 to 25 years)

Below is the number of children and young people with EHCP and the type of provision they are in:

  • mainstream school or academy: 1512
  • special schools: 470
  • special independent: 80
  • independent: 10
  • post 16: 333
  • mainstream resourced provision: 35
  • alternative provision or PRU: 31
  • other: 149
  • elective home education: 36

The 'other' category in the above list includes the following:

  • not in education or training
  • not in education statutory school age
  • other arrangements by LA
  • other arrangements by parents
  • NEET
  • non-maintained Early Years

The percentages of our children and young people aged between 0 to 25 with an EHCP and the specialist places they are accessing are shown below:

  • mainstream school or academy: 56.93%
  • special schools: 17.70%
  • special independent: 0.38%
  • independent: 3.01%
  • post 16: 12.54%
  • mainstream resourced provision: 1.32%
  • alternative provision or PRU: 1.17%
  • other: 5.61%
  • elective home education: 1.36%

Refer to page 10 for a line graph that illustrates the number of children and young people within Cumberland with an EHCP  who are electively home educated (EHE). The data shows the academic year 2023 to 2024. There has been a steady increase throughout the year with 73% more EHCP pupils being educated at home by the end of July than at the start of the academic year (22 in September 2023 and 38 in July 2024).

National figures as of January 2024 (taken from DfE statistical release)

The list below shows the percentage of all children and young people in schools in England who were recorded having an Education, Health and Care Plan:

  • January 2019: 3.1%, no difference from previous year
  • January 2020: 3.3%, 0.2% difference from previous year
  • January 2021: 3.7%, 0.4% difference from previous year
  • January 2022: 4.0%, 0.3% difference from previous year
  • January 2023: 4.3%, 0.3% difference from previous year
  • January 2024: 4.8%, 0.5% difference from previous year

The data shows that there has been a steady increase year on year of the number of children and young people in schools in England who have an EHCP.

The list below shows the percentage of all children and young people in schools in England who were recorded as being on SEN Support:

  • January 2019: 11.9%, no difference from previous year
  • January 2020: 12.1%, 0.2% difference from previous year
  • January 2021: 12.2%, 0.1% difference from previous year
  • January 2022: 12.6%, 0.4% difference from previous year
  • January 2023: 13.0%, 0.4% difference from previous year
  • January 2024: 13.6%, 0.6% difference from previous year

The data shows that there has been a steady increase between 2019 and 2024 of the number of children and young people in schools in England who are on SEN Support.

The most common type of primary need recorded for pupils in England with an EHCP is for Autistic Spectrum Disorders. For pupils with SEND support the most common type of primary need recorded is for speech, communication and language needs.

In England, SEND is more prevalent in boys than girls and the number of children and young people on SEN Support both nationally and in Cumberland is displayed below:

  • in Cumberland there are 59.7 males and 40.3 females
  • in England there are 62.0 males and 38.0 females

January 2024 figures for Cumberland (taken from DfE statistical release)

Refer to page 12 for a chart that shows the percentage of all children and young people in schools in Cumberland and England who were recorded as having an Education, Health and Care Plan.

The data shows that there has been a steady increase year on year of the number of children and young people in schools in Cumberland who have an EHCP, this follows the national trend.

Number of children and young people with an EHCP (0 to 25 years) for the three most prevalent primary needs

Refer to the table on page 12.

The three most prevalent primary needs recorded for children and young people with an EHCP in Cumberland are set out below in order of prevalence:

  • the highest number is communication and interaction needs including Autistic Spectrum Disorders (ASD)
  • the second highest number is for Speech, Language and Communication (SLCN)
  • the third highest number is for Social, Emotional and Mental Health (SEMH)

Number of children and young people with an EHCP (statutory school age) for the three most prevalent primary needs

Refer to the table on page 13.

The three most prevalent primary needs recorded for statutory school aged children and young people with an EHCP in Cumberland are set out below in order of prevalence:

  • the highest number is for communication and interaction needs including Autistic Spectrum Disorders
  • the second highest number is for Speech, Language and Communication
  • the third highest number is for Social, Emotional and Mental Health

Occupancy of all specialist places

'Other provision' listed on the chart on page 14 refers to 40 specialist places that are delivered for children and young people with SEMH needs in both West Cumbria Learning Centre and Gilford Centre PRU. These places are for children and young people aged between 7 to 11 years.

In order to meet the needs of children and young people with SEND residing within Cumberland, it is sometimes necessary to place them within specialist provisions outside of our local authority. Whilst this may be required to meet specific needs, it is a costly option. 

  • 179 (6.36%) of children and young people with an EHCP were recorded as accessing places outside of this local authority in September 2024
  • 179 children and young people, 104 attend school in the Westmorland and Furness area
  • 75 children and young people (2.66%) access places outside of the former Cumbria area
  • in January 2024 (January census data) there were 51 pupils with an EHCP attending a school in Cumberland living outside of the Cumberland area

SEN Support

In order to accurately forecast the specialist places required across the district for children and young people with EHCPs, constant monitoring of all children is required, alongside all of the children and young people with SEN support.

Refer to the table on page 15 which shows the percentage of all children and young people in schools in Cumberland who were recorded as being on SEN support compared to the national figure.

The data shows that there has been a steady increase from 2017 to 2018 and 2023 to 2024 of the number of children and young people in schools from Cumberland with SEN support, this follows the national trend.

The data illustrates that the number of children and young people with SEND support in Cumberland decreased from 2020 to 2021 and 2021 to 2022. However, over the past 2 years there has been a significant increase in the number of children and young people receiving SEN support so that the number as of 2023 to 2024 surpasses that of 2020 to 2021 and remains in line with the national figures.

The three most prevalent primary needs recorded for children and young people with SEND support in Cumberland are listed below in order of prevalence:

  • Specific Learning Difficulty (SPLD)
  • Social, Emotional and Mental Health (SEMH)
  • Speech, Language and Communication Needs (SLCN)

Refer to the table on page 16 for special educational needs in England. 

  • 10% increase between January 2023 and January 2024 for Specific Learning Difficulties
  • 21% increase between January 2023 and January 2024 for Social, Emotional and Mental Health
  • 9% increase between January 2023 and January 2024  for Speech, Language and Communication

Forecast

Our data clearly indicates that additional specialist places are required to be developed over the coming years in response to continued growth in the number of EHCPs.

As can be seen throughout the report, there are many variables that affect current and future projections of required specialist places in order to meet the needs of children and young people with SEND across Cumberland. Several of the below variables are referred to throughout this report:

  • there are a significant number of children and young people across Cumberland on SEN support
  • there has been an an increase in the percentage of the children and young people with an EHCP in Cumberland - we are now slightly above the national average
  • 26% increase in the number of EHCA requests between 2022 and 2023
  • 14.4% increase in the number of EHCA that we agreed to assess
  • high level of occupancy in established specialist provisons

We forecast that once a child or young person has moved into the EHCP cohort they will remain in that cohort. By analysing the flow of children and young people across each stream of SEND provision it is forecast that there will be an increase in the number of children and young people that will require access to a specialist place.

Going forward, a growth model will be used to forecast for EHCP's based on an average seen over the past three year's data to project the following:

  • the number of children and young people between 0 to 25 with an EHCP
  • the number of statutory school aged children and young people with an EHCP
  • the type of placement required

Conclusion

The number of children and young people with an EHCP within Cumberland continues to rise year on year. The high levels of occupancy of the current specialist provisions demonstrates that there is a need to develop more specialist provisions in order to meet current and future demand. The development of further specialist provisions will ultimately reduce the reliance on placing children and young people with SEND, within more expensive specialist provisions outside of our local authority and away from their families and local communities.

Given that the current occupancy of our specialist places stands at 98.2% and the projected increase of our statutory school aged cohort of children and young people with an EHCP, additional specialist places are required.

We are looking to create an additional 100 specialist places between 2024 to 2025 and 2025 to 2026 academic years. With these places being delivered across both the special school sector and in resourced provisions. This is the minimum number of specialist places required to be developed in order to meet demand and to control (and not increase) the reliance on more expensive out of authority placements.

As confirmed, the three most prevalent primary needs recorded for children and young people with an EHCP in order of prevalence are:

  • communication and interaction needs including Autistic Spectrum Disorders (ASD)
  • Speech, Language and Communication (SLCN)
  • Social, Emotional and Mental Health (SEMH)

The three most prevalent primary needs recorded for statutory school aged children and young people with an EHCP in order of prevalence are:

  • communication and interaction needs including Autistic Spectrum Disorders (ASD)
  • Speech, Language and Communication (SLCN)
  • Social, Emotional and Mental Health (SEMH)

The three most prevalent primary needs for children and young people (aged 0 to 25) with an EHCP and a placement within a special school are as follows in order of prevalence:

  • communication and interaction needs including Autistic Spectrum Disorder (ASD)
  • Severe Learning Difficulties (SLD)
  • Speech, Language and Communication Needs (SLCN)

The three most prevalent primary needs for children and young people of statutory school age with an EHCP and a placement within a Special School are as follows in order of prevalence:

  • communication and interaction needs including Autistic Spectrum Disorder (ASD)
  • Speech, Language and Communication Needs (SLCN)
  • Severe Learning Difficulties (SLD)

The local authority’s data evidences a number of key pressure points. In order to address the key pressure points, we have identified that the following additional provision is required:

  • additional primary resourced provision places for the most prevalent primary needs identified
  • review of need for specialist provision for early years
  • additional secondary resourced provision places for the most prevalent primary needs identified
  • additional (all through) special school places for all primary needs

Please refer to the following individual constituency overviews for more detailed information