School Organisation Plan 2024 - Forecasting methodology

The Council uses past and present pupil numbers in all schools across the Cumberland area. Pupil numbers are usually reported to the DfE in October, January and May as part of the School Census return – we use January numbers for our projections. This information is used together with health data and approved housing developments to assess the extent to which a surplus or shortfall of places is likely to exist in the future. 

The purpose of forecasting pupil numbers is to satisfy the Council’s statutory requirement to meet current and future demand for places.  Equally, though, it is about delivering a school system which is best placed to support our communities with high-quality education provision.  It is not aimed at simply maintaining the status quo, but at supporting the identification of options where change could enhance and improve provision. 

The statutory duty to ensure sufficient school places exist in Cumberland is unlikely not to be met as currently Cumberland has more school places overall than it has children and young people.  This, however, does not necessarily mean that the school places are in the locations required to meet demand, as such pupil place planning is essential in ensuring that demand can be met now and in the future. 

Cumberland covers a large, diverse geographical area.  It includes the city of Carlisle, a number of large towns, and some of the most sparsely populated areas of the country.  To carry-out pupil forecasts effectively, the area is split into smaller areas we refer to as planning areas.  There are 17 primary school planning areas and three secondary school planning areas. There are fewer secondary schools than primary schools and they usually admit larger numbers and children and young people from a wider area than primary schools, hence the difference in number and size of these areas.  

We agree our planning areas each year with Department for Education (DfE) as part of the statutory School Capacity Return.  The planning area are formed following DfE guidance (Local Authority Pupil Planning Areas (publishing.service.gov.uk)).  As well as helping us to assess demand for school places, planning areas also underpin the DfE’s calculation of ‘Basic Need’ capital funding; this is allocated to local authorities when projected numbers in a planning area exceed the available capacity.  Historically, Cumberland Council and its predecessor Cumbria County Council, have received comparatively small Basic Need allocations.  This is largely because most of our planning areas have schools with surplus places. 

Primary school planning areas are typically made up of between two and ten schools. They vary in size depending on the rural or urban nature of the area with rural areas generally having larger geographical planning areas. The size and shape of the planning areas are also dependent on where children live and where they are likely to attend schools. 

Secondary school planning areas are substantial in size.  They have been formed based on pupil movements between catchment areas, which has traditionally been considerable.  In Carlisle, for example, many parents typically seek places for their children at William Howard School in Brampton, or Caldew School in Dalston; those two schools, therefore, form part of the wider Carlisle Secondary planning area.  In the West, pupils from the catchment of West Lakes Academy travel south to Millom, and north to Whitehaven Academy or St Benedict’s, so these schools are all part of a single secondary planning area.  

Parents and carers are under no obligation to select their closest school and can apply for schools that may be a considerable distance from home.  Parents may apply, for example, for a faith school in another area, or a school close to their place of work. Parents may also choose independent schooling for their child. As a result, there is not necessarily a direct link between the number of children living in a particular catchment or planning area and the number of school places located there.  

Past and present data on the number and addresses of pupils in schools is used to identify historic and current trends in patterns of movement and where children attend school. This analysis is applied to further data to forecast expected future patterns of demand.  

Much attention within this document is focused on the “starter” years in schools – Reception for primary schools and Year 7 for secondary schools. These are the most significant year groups when there is a changing school population, either increasing or decreasing. As the most recent admissions to schools, they are the year groups that are likely to best reflect current parental attitudes to schools.  Forecasts indicate how many children are expected to require a school place in each primary or secondary school planning area, and this is evaluated against the number of available places in the planning areas.  Action is then taken if the demand significantly outstrips the supply or vice versa.  

Health Authority registrations underpin all primary school forecasts. This data is provided to the Council annually by the DfE, and provides full details of children aged 0-18 living in the area and registered with the NHS. Only those registered at the time can be included and therefore any movement or new children moving into Cumberland may not be included; year-to-year inward and outward movement to and from Cumberland is generally relatively insignificant in projecting future demand in any case.  

By comparing one year’s data to the next, any increases or decreases in the size of age groups over time can be identified, and this provides information on the number of children that may require school places in the future. 
 
Although there are different ways by which the future need for school places can be estimated, the forecast methodology used identifies:   

• the pattern of how numbers of children aged under 5, registered with the NHS in a primary school planning area, turn into numbers of reception pupils in that area
• the pattern of pupils attending each primary school transferring to individual secondary schools.  

There are four key reasons for using this methodology: 

• accurate data in the relevant areas from the NHS
• accurate data for those attending primary and secondary schools in each of the areas from national census data submitted by each school
• the areas used are large enough not to be too influenced by short-term or very local peaks and troughs, but small enough not to rely on wholly inaccessible provision to meet local needs
• able to make year on year comparisons to avoid discrepancies and make allowances or find reasons for sudden changes by local and central knowledge of each school

As well as Health data there are several different factors that will influence the number of children in an area that turn into the numbers of pupils. The level of new housing, inward and outward migration, popularity, Ofsted reports, movement between Councils mainly on the borders and the take up of places at independent schools are all examples. Where possible these factors are accounted for in the methodology.