School Organisation Plan 2024 - Forecasting primary aged pupils using the primary planning areas

A review of the primary planning areas is undertaken each year to determine whether the mix of schools remains appropriate. If deemed necessary, proposals can be submitted to the DfE to make the following changes:   

• the number of planning areas
• the names of planning areas
• the schools making up some of the planning areas
• the geographical area covered by some of the planning areas

If, after review, it is deemed necessary to make changes to the primary planning areas and such changes are approved by the DfE, the new planning areas will be used for primary school forecasts from 2026 onwards.  

Although planning areas were initially established to best fit where children live and the area that they are likely to attend school through historical and demographic trends, this is not always the case. Often parental preferences are made for what is perceived as ‘better’ or more popular schools, ease of access, or where childcare arrangements fit in with their family circumstances. To reflect this, the forecasting process factors in application data and movement between planning areas; whilst we try to maintain ‘self-contained’ planning areas, it is inevitable that a number of children will cross these artificial boundaries.   

School census data is used to identify patterns of how many children from each planning area attend each school. By applying this information to birth and health data, we can provisionally forecast the number of reception children starting at each primary school.  Where required, adjustments are made where recent changes in parental preferences are not reflected in previous years’ trends.  

The census data is used to calculate a ‘retention rate’ of pupil numbers remaining in each school in each year group. This is then applied to the most recent census data to forecast ‘in-year’ numbers expected at each school.  In Cumberland, there has historically been very little year-on-year change in cohort numbers once they are established in Reception.  

Estimates of the likely number of additional pupils in approved new housing are then added to these numbers over a four-year period, beginning in the following academic year, to allow time for construction to begin on the development and homes to become occupied.