School Organisation Plan 2024 - Forecasting secondary aged pupils using the secondary planning areas

In general, families are more willing for children to travel further for secondary education than for primary education.  In practice, given the rural nature of much of Cumberland, this is a necessity in any case for many families.   

Analysis of historic trends of children transferring from primary to secondary school is key to the forecasting of future Year 7 cohorts.   

Information on the numbers of children from each primary school transferring to each secondary school is monitored and maintained. This includes children from private, independent schools and from children living across the borders in other Local Authorities. By applying this information to the primary school forecast figures, we can provisionally forecast the number of year 7 children starting at each secondary school. Where required, adjustments are made where recent changes in parental preferences are not reflected in previous years’ trends.   

Again, the census data is used to calculate a ‘retention rate’ of pupil numbers remaining in each school in each year group, including the staying on rate in schools with a sixth form.  This is then applied to the most recent census data to forecast ‘in-year’ numbers expected at each school.   

Estimates of the likely number of additional pupils in approved new housing are then added to these numbers over time, to allow for the construction to begin on the development and homes to become occupied.